Shocks to the System: Great Power Rivalry and the Leadership Long Cycle

Abstract:

The different phases of the leadership long cycle are hypothesized to significantly alter the number of great power rivalries that terminate and initiate. Specifically, the global war phase is expected to “shock” dyads into and out of rivalry. Bivariate and multivariate event history techniques are used to show that periods of capability deconcentration are associated with increased great power rivalry terminations but not initiations. Furthermore, terminations are less likely to occur during phases of systemic capability concentration than in other periods, as the theory predicts. The expectations concerning rivalry initiations are not supported.