Michael Colaresi and Zuhaib Mahmood. 2017.
The Journal of Peace Research awarded Michael Colaresi and Zuhaib Mahmood the fifth JPR Best Visualization Award for their article Do the Robot: Lessons from Machine Learning to Improve Conflict Forecasting, published in the May 2017 special issue of the Journal of Peace Research.
From the JPR: “The jury was particularly impressed by the introduction of a new visual tool to assess the predictive accuracy of quantitative models. These ‘model criticism plots’ are part of an iterative cycle of model construction, evaluation and improvement, and help users identify observations where the difference between predicted and observed outcomes is particularly pronounced. In doing so, Colaresi and Mahmood’s graphs take the idea of separation plots (Greenhill, Ward & Sacks, 2011) one step further, and add an additional dimension to jointly evaluate absolute values, but also their rank in the overall sample.”